INS 102 Global Investment Challenge Report Outline
Global Economic Update & Outlook:
(1 page minimum)
Discuss global economic conditions, GDP growth, Inflation, Consumption, Investment, Interest Rates, and Currency Movements.
Discuss Globally (the World has a Whole) and key countries/regions: U.S. U.K. Euro Area, Japan and key EM countries (China, India, Brazil). Use IMF World Economic Outlook
Example of Growth Table:
source IMF WEO
Where are we in terms of the global business cycle? Expansion, Peak, etc. and Likelihood of a Recession ? What about each major country/region?
Discuss major recent economic policies in the U.S., European Union, Japan, China and any other countries you are investing in.
Monetary: What are central banks doing with respect to interest rates, raising them or lowering them? and what about their balance sheets? Expanding them or contracting them? Why? What are the implications for economic growth, inflation and financial markets.
(Include graphs and/or tables to illustrate and make your point)
Fiscal Policy: What are governments doing regarding taxes and government spending? Raising them or cutting them? Why? What are the sizes of fiscal deficits, are they expected to increase or decline? By how much?
(Include graphs and/or tables)
Trade Policy: Are the countries imposing import tariffs, renegotiating trade deals (e.g. NAFTA, TPP), leaving trade unions (Brexit) ? Why? What are the implications for global economic growth and financial markets?
Global Investment Strategy:
(1 page minimum)
Are you positioning aggressively, i.e. taking risks betting on stocks more than bonds because you are forecasting continued economic growth?
Or are you following a more defensive, less risky investment strategy because you expect weaker growth and/or don’t like certain economic policies being implemented?
Global Tactical Asset Allocation:
(Half a page minimum)
Show table with weights in Stock ETFs compared to Corporate Bond ETFs (Credit), Government Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs and Currency ETFs.
Explain your positioning and its rationale based on your Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy discussion above. By positioning, I mean what percent of your portfolio is in Stock ETFs, compared to Government ETFs and Corporate Bond ETFs, Commodities ETFs , and Currencies ETFs etc.
Global Financial Markets Discussion:
(1 page minimum)
How has the market been behaving, what are the hot economic topics/issues everyone is talking about in the financial media? Follow the financial media (CNBC, Bloomberg TV)
Recent development and outlook for interest rates in different countries (U.S., European Union, U.K., Japan, and Key Emerging Market (BRIC) countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China.)
Recent trends and outlook for corporate profits given economic growth outlook above, and outlook for bond yields given your discussion of interest rates
Discuss recent developments in global stock markets. Show price charts. Based on above discussion of economic growth and corporate profits, what is the outlook for the stock market.
Example of chart: ETF for World Stock Market Index
Very generally, discuss recent developments and determinants for prices of a key commodity: Oil
Generally, what is happening with the U.S. dollar versus the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Pound Sterling. What about Emerging Market currencies, namely the Mexican Peso, Chinese Yuan, and Brazilian Real versus the US Dollar. (Includes tables/graphs)
Investment Portolio Discussion
(Two page minimum)
Table Showing Your Portfolio
Discuss the reasoning behind each ETF that you own, and some you decided to avoid and why.
Show a table with your portfolio performance, namely your total return and sources of return, how much did each ETF contribute or detract from your performance. (in a table in percent).
Discuss which ETFs performed as expected and which did not, and why? What were the economic, policy and/or market surprises that messed things up in terms of your portfolio’s performance? What could you have done differently in terms of your economic analysis, positioning, and risk management?
(half a page minimum)
What are the ongoing risks you are taking in your portfolio, including economic risks, interest rate risks, corporate business risks, credit risks and financial market volatility risks.
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