Discuss the evolution of and the relevance and accuracy of the volatility forecasting techniques which predominate in todays’ financial marketplace with reference to the models, the time horizon and the period under review.
Volatility is a key variable in modern financial theories and volatility forecast values critically inform the financial decision making process. In consequence, accurate measuring techniques and precise forecasts of future volatility are essential within the financial marketplace to enable effective evaluation of asset prices and the implementation of trading, hedging and capital optimisation strategies.
Select a single liquid option (call or put), calculate the implied volatility of the option which should act as a forecast for volatility over the period until expiration (ideally 2 to 3 months). Select at least two different alternative techniques for forecasting volatility for the same stock over the same period and calculate your results. In approximately 2 /3months time (i.e. end March), review your data ex post to see how effective the three volatility forecasts were.
Compare your results ex post and critically analyse and evaluate your results
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